← Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
Water DianaTier 2
at Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Diana decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reconnaissance Field | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calculated Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |